1
Evaluation of the current bus system in
Dublin- Identifying weaknesses and
comparing to latest bus network
proposal, Bus Connects
Dissertation submitted in part fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of
Master in Business Administration – General
at Dublin Business School
Barbara Irene Palleros Baez
Student Number: 10381115
Master in Business Administration- General
January 2019
2
Declaration: I, Barbara I. Palleros Baez, declare that this research is my original work and that it has
never been presented to any institution or university for the award of Degree or Diploma. In addition, I
have referenced correctly all literature and sources used in this work and this this work is fully compliant
with the Dublin Business School’s academic honesty policy.
Signed: Barbara I. Palleros Baez
Date: 07/01/2019
3
Acknowledgements
There are many individuals who have accompanied me during my MBA journey and I would like to
express my gratitude towards them. I would like to firstly thank my family for their constant support
through this whole year, their inspiration and frequent words of encouragement.
I would also like to thank my supervisor, Heikki Laiho, for his guidance and advice as well as for the
confidence provided.
I am also grateful towards other DBS staff and faculty members, for the knowledge shared and their
assistance at various stages during my studies.
I have been fortunate to meet many of my fellow DBS classmates with whom I have shared most of the
academic challenges encountered and would like to thank them for their advice and friendship. I would
also like to thank my non-DBS friends for their company, support and patience.
Finally, I would like to express my gratitude towards all those who participated in my primary research
process and made this study possible.
4
Abstract
Public transportation design and characteristics need to be adapted to suit the needs of those it is
intended for, residents and visitors. As a city’s population grows the system requires revision and
updates so that the increased volumes of travellers are catered for and any new developed areas,
created through dispersed city growth, can have adequate access to the public transport system.
Dublin’s experienced urban sprawl has generated the need for stretching the bus services that currently
travel in a radial manner intersecting at the city centre where the highest level of commercial and
employment activities occurs. The National Transport Authority has issued a proposal for a bus network
redesign under the name of Bus Connects that aims at improving journey times, frequency and reliability
of the service provided, among others. This study identifies the current bus service weaknesses from
the users’ perspective through a quantitative primary research. It then assesses the characteristics
proposed in Bus Connects in accordance with those identified current system issues, to understand if
the main presently unsatisfied needs would be considered into the new system. The findings show that
one of the main issues raised by bus travellers in Dublin is the normal operating hours with 37.9% and
42% of responses suggesting extended services hours should be adopted on weekdays and weekends
respectively, however this measure is not included into the Bus Connects proposal. Other raised issues,
including connectivity of outer neighbourhoods, frequency of services and integrated fare structure to
include various modes of transportation in one fare, are considered and improved in the Bus Connects
proposal. The satisfaction level towards the mobile applications available for bus services is also
evaluated and its relevance towards the satisfaction with the overall system is analysed, finding a
positive correlation between them and an identified need for Real Time Information improvement.
Additionally, the relevance of convenient bus accessibility when looking for housing location options is
assessed, to interpret the effect that the current bus system weaknesses may have in a city that is going
through a housing shortage crisis.
5
Table of Contents
1. Introduction …………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 7
1.1
Context for the Research: ………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 7
1.2
Aims of this Research: ……………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 8
1.3
Rationale for the Research:
………………………………………………………………………………………………… 8
1.4
Dissertation Structure……………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 10
1.5
Limitations to the Research
………………………………………………………………………………………………. 11
2
Literature Review
…………………………………………………………………………………………….. 13
2.1
Literature Introduction ……………………………………………………………………………………………………… 13
2.2
Dublin’s expected growth in the near future …………………………………………………………………….. 13
2.3
Housing Shortage …………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 14
2.4
Commuting into and out of Dublin City centre ………………………………………………………………….. 15
2.5
Agile Cities ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 18
2.6
Other cities
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 20
2.7
Plans for changes in Bus system ………………………………………………………………………………………. 23
2.8
Literature Conclusion
………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 25
3
Research Methodology
…………………………………………………………………………………….. 26
3.1
Research Strategy
…………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 28
3.2
Population and Sampling ………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 29
3.3
Data Collection and Data Analysis
…………………………………………………………………………………….. 29
3.4
Ethical Issues
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 30
4
Data Analysis and Findings ………………………………………………………………………………. 32
5
Discussion ……………………………………………………………………………………………………… 39
5.1
Bus Accessibility and Housing Decisions …………………………………………………………………………… 39
5.2
Bus Users’ needs and Bus Connects Proposal …………………………………………………………………… 40
5.3
Mobile Applications for Buses in Dublin …………………………………………………………………………….. 42
5.4
Bus Fares …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 45
6
Conclusions and Recommendations ………………………………………………………………….. 48
Reflections ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 50
Bibliography ………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 52
Appendices …………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 58
Appendix A ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 58
6
Appendix B ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 59
Appendix C ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 60
Appendix D
………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 61
List of Tables and Figures
Figure 1: The Research Onion (Saunders, Lewis and Thornhill, 2012, p. 128) ……………………………..
26
Figure 2: Four paradigms for the analysis of social theory (Saunders, Lewis and Thornhill, 2012, p. 141)
…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
28
Figure 3: Frequency of bus use by respondents………………………………………………………………………..
33
Figure 4: Distance from home to closest bus stop
……………………………………………………………………..
33
Figure 5: Question 14 Responses- Fare Saver Options
……………………………………………………………..
34
Figure 6: Type of fare used most by respondents ……………………………………………………………………..
34
Figure 7: Rough amount spent on bus monthly
…………………………………………………………………………
35
Figure 8: Use of buses during night time ………………………………………………………………………………….
35
Figure 9: Use of buses on weekends
……………………………………………………………………………………….
35
Figure 10: Longest commuting time on bus
………………………………………………………………………………
36
Figure 11: Level of importance of bus access when considering accommodation location ……………..
36
Figure 12: Histogram with level of satisfaction with existing bus services
……………………………………..
37
Figure 13: Bus Service Improvement Options …………………………………………………………………………..
37
Figure 14: Rating of Bus Mobile Applications ……………………………………………………………………………
38
Figure 15: Bus Connects proposed Core Radial routes. (Jarret Walker & Associates, 2018b, p. 25) .
42
Figure 16: Correlation Analysis between Mobile App Rating and Bus Satisfaction Scores ……………..
44
Figure 17: Sampling Technique (Saunders, Lewis and Thornhill, 2009, p. 223)
…………………………….
58
Figure 18: 95% confidence level sample sizes (Saunders, Lewis and Thornhill, 2009, p. 219)
………..
59
Figure 19: Ireland’s Population Table 1987-2018 (Central Statistics Office, 2018)
…………………………
60
7
1. Introduction
1.1 Context for the Research:
“…high quality and more efficient public transport provisions that responds economic needs and
connects residents with jobs is considered as a key factor for city growth” (Ustaoglu et al., 2017)
As the population in a city grows, there is a need for increase in housing developments to accommodate
the enlarged number of residents. Ireland’s population has been in continuous growth since 1990 in
accordance with data from the Central Statistics Office (CSO) (2018) as can be observed in Appendix
C. As a consequence, Dublin, being the capital city, has experienced the largest population growth in
the country.
Dublin’s building heights have historically been limited through guidelines that varied depending on the
area of development being considered but did not exceed six to eight storeys generally (Department of
Housing, Planning and Local Government, 2018, p. 1), with very limited exceptions made (particularly
in recent years) for locations such as the Docklands. This has led to the city physically growing
horizontally through dispersed development since the 1990s (Ustaoglu et al., 2017). Such a type of
development requires public transportation systems to accompany the growth by expanding their reach
further so as to allow residents in the new areas to commute from their homes to any activities they
may be involved in without having to rely on ownership of a private vehicle.
The main cities in Ireland, including and particularly Dublin, are going through a housing shortage crisis,
an issue that is extensively discussed by media in a frequent basis. Despite the general awareness of
this issue, it is not expected to be resolved in the near future due to the population growth forecasts for
the coming years and to the current inability to develop new homes at the rate that has been studied to
be optimum to meet the growing demands (Morgenroth, 2018).
Simultaneously, the public transportation system in Dublin has many proposals for future development
or upgrade. The latest one related to the bus system specifically has been identified to be called Bus
Connects, which aims at improving the existing service by providing faster and more frequent bus route
services, as well as a new network design (National Transport Authority, 2018c).
Effective public transportation in Dublin could aid the above-mentioned current housing crisis, even if
in a small manner, by allowing ease of access to already developed or soon to be developed areas,
such that no housing opportunities are wasted or available to only a reduced fraction of the population
who own private cars.
8
1.2 Aims of this Research:
This research aims to investigate the effectiveness of the existing bus system in Dublin and identify its
main weaknesses from the users’ perspective. Through this, this study aims to analyse the proposed
changes in the bus system for the near future (the Bus Connects proposal) according to these main
issues identified. It will also aim to find any impact or influence that accessibility to the bus system may
have when considering alternatives for housing locations so as to identify any possible linkage between
the currently undergoing housing shortage in Dublin city and the bus transportation system available,
with the ultimate aim of finding out: Is the proposal for the new bus network system dealing with
the main issues currently experienced by its users? And Does the current bus system in Dublin
have an impact in the housing shortage issue?
Moreover, the study will include research on characteristics of and initiatives adopted to bus public
transportation systems from other cities to analyse possible additional/alternative solutions that could
be applicable to Dublin’s bus system.
From the above, the following sub-questions are identified for this study:
•
What are the current issues in Dublin’s bus system as experienced by bus commuters?
•
Do the existing bus service characteristics influence residents when looking for
accommodation?
•
What are the development or improvement plans for the bus services in Dublin in the coming
years that can improve mobility in the city?
•
What measures have been adopted in bus systems in other cities that could be beneficial for
consideration in Dublin city?
The main contribution of this study will be the identification of the currently unsatisfied bus commuters’
needs with the existing bus transportation system through the development of adequate primary
research, and the evaluation of how the newest proposal considers these needs.
1.3
Rationale for the Research:
Housing shortage is a well-known, frequently discussed issue for Dublin and other cities in Ireland.
There is constant research being carried out to understand the future projection in size of the city and
the implications of not being able to accommodate the expected growth. Literature found, however, has
not provided an insight into the effects that the existing bus system has on Dublin city residents
commuting needs that can affect them at the time of assessing accommodation alternatives in or around
the city. This is considered relevant since a lack of adequate or convenient accessibility to public
transport can equate to some housing opportunities being only accessible to residents who own private
9
cars, who, in turn, would also be subject to the increasing traffic congestion affecting their commuting
times (National Transport Authority, 2016a) and to restricted parking opportunities in the city centre
(McGee, 2018).
It was reported that the current infrastructure in Ireland is lagging behind with the increasing demand
from the growing population, the transportation system being one of them, and in order to be able to
continue growing economically by attracting more business, this issue will need to be addressed. Some
believe that the housing shortage issue (along with school capacities, healthcare and public transport)
is already starting to discourage investment (MacDonald, 2016). Others expect that the upcoming
United Kingdom Brexit measures will continue to attract UK firms into Dublin, despite the housing crisis,
though the shortage of accommodation along with its elevated prices are still highlighted as the main
factors currently discouraging new or further investment (O’Carroll, 2017).
McGee (2018) reported that future developments in the city centre of Dublin will not include provision
for car park spaces in an effort to reduce private car usage and encourage use of public transport
instead. For this sustainable measure to be successful and feasible for residents, public transportation
options need to be available, accessible and efficient, as well as cost-effective for its users, so that all
residents may be able to adopt public transportation as an alternative to private cars, particularly those
who commute longer distances and/or do not have the opportunity to walk or cycle as an alternative to
their activities.
As stated by Vickerman (2007) there’s a “need for further work on micro studies to unravel how the
decision-making of firms and households is influenced by transport infrastructure” (Vickerman, 2007,
as cited by Wangsness, Rødseth and Hansen, 2017) thus suggesting that the availability and quality of
public transport services is one of the considerations that both firms and residents assess prior to
choosing a home or an office location. Locations with better access to public transportation tend to be
better valued and thus also more popular for investment.
New projects to improve Dublin’s public transportation system have been looked at for many years, with
some proposals going ahead, such as the expansion of one of the tram lines, the “LUAS Cross city”
project which was the extension of the green LUAS line northbound, others ending at the proposal
phase without success, such as the Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) proposal, “Swiftway” which was issued
for consultation back in 2014, and others still being analysed and debated such as “Metro North” (Ginty,
2017). The Bus Connects proposal is the latest proposal related to the bus system and for which works
could begin as early as the end of 2019.
This study will contribute to the existing literature through an assessment of the weaknesses in the
current bus system from the users’ perspective and evaluating the extent to which these are being
incorporated into the latest Bus Connects proposal. It also aims at finding any linkage that the current
10
bus system and the existing housing shortage issue may have in Dublin city, if at all. The purpose of
this will be to identify any developments in the bus transportation system that could potentially assist to
improve the bus commuters’ experience and accessibility to buses and to understand which limitations
in to the bus public transport can currently be discouraging its use in some cases and causing that
already-existing housing opportunities may be wasted. In order to achieve this, the study will also
investigate current adopted bus system characteristics in a similar city from another country that may
be considered applicable for future consideration into the bus system here in Dublin.
1.4
Dissertation Structure
The background for this study with its various sub-topics is detailed in Chapter 2 through the literature
review that assisted with the development of the research topic and the identification of different themes.
This chapter is thus divided into these identified themes and the latest and most relevant information
on them has been summarised. This is where the highlights of the proposed new bus network design
(Bus Connects) can be found, along with other relevant topics such as the current situation for Dublin
commuters in terms of transportation, further information on the previously mentioned housing crisis as
well as the city’s projected continuing growth that is influencing the way in which Dublin develops and
plans for the future. Transport characteristics from other cities that differ from Dublin’s existing system
are also included in this section and another section on the concepts that agile cities bring forward
related to public transportation.
Chapter 3 in this study shows the process undertaken to find the most appropriate research
methodology to suit this particular research topic, through an analysis of the research onion model
explained in Saunders, Lewis and Thornhill (2012). The methods for carrying out the primary research
are thus identified and explained, possible biases and ethical issues are also acknowledged.
The following chapter, number 4, presents a summary of the findings that were collected through the
primary research, this is done mainly through figures that aid to visualise the results, with brief
explanations to assist in their understanding.
A discussion of the findings follows in Chapter 5, with a more in-depth analysis of what they portray and
how they are interpreted by the researcher, also considering the previously found literature, particularly
providing an analysis of the bus network proposal for the near future.
A conclusion of the main findings can be found in chapter 6, which summarises the analysis carried out
previously and focuses on those that are more relevant to this study. This chapter also includes
recommendations for further study.
11
1.5
Limitations to the Research
Dublin bus transportation system is part of a network of public transportation systems which also
includes tram lines (LUAS) and trains (DART). Isolating the bus system from the other modes of public
transportation is assessing an incomplete system, and it is possible that some of the weaknesses
presented in the bus system are compensated even if partially, by one or both other existing modes of
public transportation. Similarly, it is possible that the users completing the survey adopt more than one
mode of public transportation. Survey questions should be clear and explicit in their focus towards buses
only.
While the best efforts will be made to collect a varied sample of bus commuters (in terms of ages, and
destinations) this will be subject to availability and willingness of users to participate in the survey, and
due to the anonymous nature of the online collection of responses, the researcher will not be able to
ensure that the sample is indeed varied or not.
It is expected that residents living closer to the city centre will have different needs regarding public
transportation than those living in outer neighbourhoods, this study will not differentiate between those,
but rather get a general outlook on bus users’ views and needs.
The main dissertation topic is related to the current issues and a proposal of improvements based on
the primary quantitative research and secondary research of bus systems in similar cities from other
countries and comparing them with the existing Bus Connects proposal and the steps being taken
towards improvement in the near future. However, it should be noted that the researcher is not an expert
in the area of public transportation planning and design, this, and the limited time allocated for this study
may mean that some issues are missed or would be beneficial to be looked into with further detail.
Time constraints for completing the dissertation could prove to be a challenge, due to the number of
participants required to complete the primary research and the time needed to analyse the information
and data collected as well as for the secondary research. This time limitation also influences the depth
of the research and analysis that can realistically be performed in such a complex and wide topic such
as bus public transportation characteristics, that usually requires years of planning and design. Hence
it is expected that further research may be relevant into some if not all the individual factors analysed.
It is important to note that the study carried out was based on adult individuals’ experiences, and does
take into consideration children, elderly or family travelling situations and needs. Similarly, it does not
differentiate any experiences that bus users with disabilities may have.
It is worth noting also that since the Bus Connects proposals issued by NTA are under a first round of
public consultation process, and no final project has been decided on at this stage, in fact, a second
12
draft followed by another round of public consultation is expected for 2019. Therefore, the proposal is
likely to be amended, not only through the duration of this study, but also in the next coming years, and
thus, some of the findings from this study may be altered.
13
2 Literature Review
2.1
Literature Introduction
This chapter will provide background information on studies or reports previously published by others
that are related to the research topic being proposed and which have been deemed relevant and thus
consulted both during the process of topic development and for analysis carried out at later stages.
These previous studies range from a variety of sources and themes and are thus separated into different
sections according to their themes, providing diverse aspects that have been considered and
researched for the development of this dissertation.
2.2
Dublin’s expected growth in the near future
A note published in the Irish Times by McGee (2018) reported an expected population growth in Ireland
by 2040 that would require additional estimated 550,000 homes, with about half that amount in Dublin
city alone. Looking at a nearer future however, the Dublin city chamber is currently basing all planning
towards accommodating 280,000 more residents by 2031, according to Dublin Chamber CEO Burke
(Lyne, 2018).
A study carried out by the European Environment Agency (EEA) found Dublin to be one of the “worst
cases of sprawl type developments” when studied within a European context back in 2006 (Ustaoglu et
al., 2017, p. 2). Urban sprawl has many implications and generates demands on urban development,
such as infrastructure which includes, among others, transportation for accessibility and connectivity.
This type of growth in Dublin city has be attributed in part to the unwillingness of the City Council to
allow for high rise buildings historically. Low-rise buildings are more suitable for independent housing
type, while high-rise buildings generally are adopted for office use and for apartment type
accommodation. This height limitation on buildings has thus generated an insufficiency in apartment
type accommodation, which according to projections from Eurostat are the most looked-after type of
housing since the 90s and are expected to continue to be so (Burke-Kennedy, 2017).
As per the above mentioned, Dublin has historically developed outwards, expanding and growing by
covering new land and requiring extension of all services and infrastructure. In order to limit these
additional works, the National Development framework thus now proposes redevelopment of existing
formerly developed areas to be encouraged and prioritised, with higher-density projects and high-rise
buildings where suitable (McGee, 2018).
The above is agreed by a Department of Housing and Planning spokesman who mentioned the need
to limit urban sprawl where possible by pushing for more “compact development” (O’Donoghue, 2017),
14
referring also to the impact on public transportation that the continued expansion of the city would have,
a thought which was also shared by FitzGerald (2018). A report found from the World Resources
Institute explains the advantages of compact growth, stressing on the positive environmental impact
compared to urban sprawl, explaining that compact cities produce fewer carbon emissions due to the
fact that public transport and other sustainable modes of transport are more easily accessible
(Haddaoui, 2018), in such cases in which public transportation is proved to be efficient, private modes
of transportation loose some of their appeal.
The National Transport Authority (NTA), on the other hand, observed that there was a notable increase
in the number of people that choose to live in the city centre compared to 10 years before (National
Transport Authority, 2016b). It is possible that a deficiency in the accessibility towards housing
alternatives that are located further away from the city centre could be a reason for this population
growth in the heart of the city, and should this be the case, this trend could continue, unless accessibility
is improved for outer neighbourhoods.
2.3
Housing Shortage
A report published by MacDonald (2016) highlights the current issues in terms of capacity that is being
experienced throughout Ireland due to the rapid population growth that has occurred and which is
expected to continue. One of the issues mentioned is the lack of housing options for the new residents.
MacDonald mentions PayPal as an example of a company that has struggled to house new employees,
having to request their Ireland-based employees to rent out any spare rooms for newcomers where
possible. MacDonald also notes that this shortage of capacity is starting to discourage opportunities in
Ireland, noting, for instance, the Web Summit event, which used to take place in Dublin but has
relocated to Portugal due to the abovementioned accommodation capacity issue. Bodkin (2018)
supports this by commenting that a survey carried out in Dublin identified that employers were finding
it more difficult to find and retain employees due to the increasing costs of housing, which are in turn
encouraged to continue on the rise due to the high demand.
A study performed on “Scenarios and Implications” of the different regions in Ireland points out that
indeed, accommodation prices have risen as a result of the increased demand and notes the “slow
supply response in the Irish and particularly Dublin housing market” still today, also remarking that as
prices for accommodation continue to increase, there is risk that the expected immigration could start
to reduce (Morgenroth, 2018). In this way, the author warns that a lack of housing for the expected
continuous population growth in Dublin could lead to a reduction in such predicted growth.
IReach carried out a survey and found that the majority of respondents in Ireland believed government
is responsible for solving the housing shortage issue by investing in more construction, but almost as
many respondents’ believed that in order to solve the housing crisis, rent control should be stricter
15
(McHugh, 2018). This last finding reflects another issue resulting from the high demand on
accommodation experienced in Dublin, and that is that while the cost of rent has increased significantly,
the soft approach towards rent control has resulted in some cases in landlords or tenants taking
advantage of the situation by renting or subletting bedrooms without contracts and only through the
payment of cash (Power, 2018), such conditions of living and lack of legal agreements can also
influence businesses abilities to attract employees from overseas or in some cases even retain
employees that have already made the transition.
While there are efforts being done to increase the number of housing options, Financial company
Investec has predicted that new completed homes in 2018 and 2019 would be around 21,500 and
24,000, respectively, with both figures falling short of the originally expected 30,000 and 50,000,
indicating that the required new demands will not be met for a number of years (Bodkin, 2018). This
report again remarks on the increasing prices of property which are affecting the overall living cost in
Dublin, noting that a survey has found cost of living in Dublin to be pricier than London’s, once again
pointing out that business opportunities could be lost in the future should this trend continue. Others
even warn about the possibility of a housing market collapse, should the cost of rent continue to increase
(Reid, 2018).
Professor McQuinn from the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) believes that the upcoming
UK Brexit could result in a reduction in housing demand for Ireland (Gleeson, 2018) in which case,
Ireland’s economy would not be as favoured but the housing shortage crisis could see a positive turn
of events, due to a decreased demand than is currently forecasted. However, most agree that the
opposite is more likely to occur with large number of people moving from the UK to Ireland during and
after Brexit process, particularly from the financial sector (O’Carroll, 2017).
2.4
Commuting into and out of Dublin City centre
“Travel is a derived behaviour: most people travel not just for the sake of it but in order to participate in
spatially disjointed activities. When people’s need for housing is taken into account, transport policies
may confront more challenges” (Zhao and Li, 2016, p. 948)
A study performed by Murray (2017) referred to figures from the National Transport Authority (NTA)
from 2011 showing that the vast majority of the commuting in Ireland is done by car (73%) and only 4%
carried out via the use of buses. In Dublin specifically, on that same year, it was noted that 100,000
people used public transport, including buses, Luas and trains (Murray, 2017).
In 2015, the NTA reported that there were approximately 200,000 journeys to the city centre during the
peak times every weekday. The report also expressed their expectation that by 2023, this number will
increase by around 40,000, while at the same time noting an increase in the traffic volume already
16
experienced in the M50 and radial accesses to Dublin (National Transport Authority, 2016a).
O’Donoghue (2017) further noted that congestion is already a problem in the main cities in Ireland,
mainly due to the vast use of private cars, which in turn affect the bus services by causing delays, and
thus impacting on the efficiency of the bus transportation system.
Ustaoglu et al. (2017, p. 22) reported that the urban sprawl observed in and around Dublin since the
early 1990s has resulted in an increase of private car use, also agreeing that this mode of transportation
is overwhelmingly higher than all others. This suggests that residents in outer areas of the city have a
preference towards travelling via private car over using public transportation services. A study carried
out on a “car-shedding” concept provided a clearer report on this by noting that Dublin’s suburb
residents expressed “poor access to lack of alternatives to the private car as a means of transport”
(Carroll, Caulfield and Ahern, 2017) highlighting the lack of efficiency on of all modes of public transport,
including busses, perceived by residents in these areas. It is understood that this would, on the one
hand, limit opportunities of accommodation in those areas for people without access to private car or
who prefer not to use a car for daily commute, and on the other, this would contribute to the increasing
traffic congestion, affecting the quality of existing public transport system, as mentioned.
As previously noted in section 2.2, plans towards the future growth in Dublin are expected to restrict
further urban sprawl, however in stating this, O’Donoghue (2017) also remarks that the existing public
transportation services are insufficient even within the existing city footprints, suggesting that even in
the case that future developments are limited within the existing city boundaries, planning should focus
on solving this deficiencies in the public transportation system that would in turn also aid in reducing
congestion. As stated by Simpson in 1987 there is a “need to make our urban work, shopping and
recreation places more accessible while generating less travel” (Simpson, 1987, as cited by Rafter,
1996) a quote that is applicable to Dublin’s connectivity situation, in which existing bus routes operate
in a radial-type manner, all intersecting at the city centre, with no connection of outer neighbourhoods
(Jarret Walker & Associates, 2018c, p. 3) this system forces bus users to travel to the city centre and
change buses to head outwards again even if travelling to a neighbouring suburb.
Public transport in the main cities of Ireland is a frequently discussed topic, and as expressed by
Ustaoglu et al. (2017) it is a key factor which if organised properly can aid in the process of continued
population growth. An NTA member in charge of reviewing and reassessing the current bus system has
reportedly defined it as “inflexible and ‘immensely complicated” (Clarke, 2018). As such, there have
been proposals developed for modification and improvement of the current system that attempt not only
to improve its quality for current users, but also to decrease private car use by attracting more users.
To this end, measures such as a change to the fare structure that would allow the combination of
different means of public transportation without additional cost are being investigated (Kelly, 2017),
among others. Dublin has already been identified as the being second in a raking of the most expensive
cities for commuting, with only London having higher public transportation costs (Morrell, 2017).
17
As noted above, when considering the option of combining a bus with another mode of public transport
such as tram (LUAS) or train (DART), the current payment system for public transportation does not
allow for one ticket to be purchased for use in more than one mode of transport (Jarret Walker &
Associates, 2018c). Having said this, monthly and annual tax saver tickets that allow different
combination of transport types to be used are available, however companies need to register with
TaxSaver for employees to have access to these and purchase them on their behalf (taxsaver.ie, 2018).
Alternatively, annual tickets for use in bus and rail or in bus, rail and tram options also exist in the rail
webpage (Irish Rail, 2017). Outside from these “bundle” tickets purchased monthly or annually, there
are no options for purchasing tickets daily or sporadically that is valid in more than one mode of transport
per trip.
Reports from Dublin City Council and NTA earlier this year noted that the number of commuters into
Dublin City reached a new peak figure and stated that for the first time the use of public transport has
risen above 50% of the commuter journeys, also reporting that when including the use of bicycles, taxi
or walking, 70% of the trips were done through a sustainable mode of transport (Kilraine, 2018). Adding
on to this, FitzGerald (2018) has reported that up to a quarter of increase in population is expected by
2040, and that by then most commuters will rely on the use of buses mainly, even with the plans of
development of a new metro system going forward and with the existing tram (LUAS) and train (DART)
systems (FitzGerald, 2018).
The existing bus system in Dublin has been under constant debate regarding its effectiveness,
efficiency, convenience and accessibility and cost, the proposal drafted for the Bus Connects network
identifies some of the most popular weaknesses in the current system, namely: the lack of
interconnectivity with other means of public transport in the fares paid, the lack of connectivity between
outer neighbourhoods having to transfer in the city centre (both mentioned previously), the overlapping
of many routes for long distances, the complexity of the network, the low frequency on some routes
(Jarret Walker & Associates, 2018c).
As stated by Zhan (2016, p. 39) “Commuters often make travel choices based on their perceptions of
the convenience, cost, comfort and cool quotient of various mobility modes” and as such, city
governments have a degree of influence people’s decisions and their elected mean of travel through
“media and education” that can help promote the “cool quotient” for the use of public transportation.
While car ownership is still linked to status for many, this concept has started to weaken in some
locations where traffic congestion has reached very high levels and where investment into public
transportation options has resulted in cars being the slower transportation option, and public
transportation a more reliable and convenient solution (Boutot, 2015), which can be considered a
positive attitude change towards sustainability measures, and provides developing and growing cities
such as Dublin with better opportunities for success if promoting an efficient public transportation
18
system. One very modern aspect of Dublin buses worth advertising about is that they provide access
to WiFi for their users. (DoDublin, 2018)
2.5
Agile Cities
New and constantly developing technologies have provided opportunities for improvement in various
aspects of city life, including mobility. The use of data allows for integration of different modes of public
transport, such that commuters can find the fastest or most economic or in general most convenient
mode of travel. Most importantly, the development of mobile applications that makes best use of data
available provides commutes with options and accurate information. A report from the World Economic
Forum describes Agile Cities as those that have the ability to adapt to changing needs in a quick
manner, and further defines Agile Mobility as: “Agile mobility involves flexible infrastructure supported
by a collaborative digital platform that makes available real-time information about supply and demand
of services, and ensures transportation optimization, unhindered access, and systems interoperability”
(World Economic Forum, 2018).
There is a tendency by developed cities to work towards this concept of agility, even if the same term
is not utilised, by taking advantage of latest technology and information available to innovate and
improve the quality of the services provided. In its report, the World Economic Forum notes that there
are three areas in which innovation has been sought and experimented with in some cities: Physical,
Digital and Environmental (World Economic Forum, 2018). When looking at bus public transportation,
all these three measures are involved for new designs, utilising digital tools for ticketing and data
collection systems as well for Real Time Information (RTPI), focusing on limiting pollution by promoting
residents to travel in sustainable ways and even providing more environmentally-friendly vehicles, and
physically building the infrastructure needed to provide these services.
In Dublin, research carried out by Wise (2012, p. 37) on Dublin Business School (DBS) international
students and their experiences as new arrivals into the city found that among the difficulties experienced
during their period of adaptation included among other things “negotiating the local transport system”.
This finding suggests that the information available for public transportation is difficult to understand by
those that are not used to the system. Seeing that the sample included third level students from 2012,
the finding could also indicate that there may have been deficiencies in the mobile applications available
at the time, a lack of awareness of their existence or perhaps they were not found to be user friendly or
intuitive enough.
As pointed out by Badger (2016) the complexity of public transport use deriving from large number of
bus routes as well as possible combination with other means of public transport, particularly in large
cities, has led to a higher dependence in the development and constant improvement and updates of
19
mobile applications. As Dublin’s population continues to grow, and public transportation continues to
develop, so will the need for constant updated information available to its residents and visitors
increase, and the accompanied update on relevant mobile applications will be needed to allow those
travelling within the city to have access to the most suitable or convenient method/s of travel. “Without
apps, it’s nearly impossible for us to take advantage of all the transit options — and all the places transit
might take us — that exist” (Badger, 2016)
Data can be used in many ways to assess and analyse existing situations, as per a study carried out
with data from the Netherlands, for example, it is possible to identify bottlenecks in the buses routes by
studying historical operations data. This provides authorities with the opportunity to assess the reasons
for those bottlenecks and design a solution to improve these identified areas, improving the flow of
transport and also bringing higher reliability into the public transport timetables (van Oort et al., 2015).
The concept of “Agile cities” posed in the World Economic Forum report (2018) mentioned previously
notes there are ways to measuring the level physical, digital and environmental metrics for agile
mobility. These metric include (among others) measures of the following: person-based accessibility
described as the “time it takes to earn the cost of mean travel time to work”, multimodal transport
explained as “links between different modes of transport”, presence of integrated mobility payment
systems and the use of mobile applications to facilitate transport activity (World Economic Forum,
2018). Agility in transportation is a growing concept for the main cities around the world, that aim at
allowing people to commute as efficiently as possible. Also, by providing urban residents with efficient
modes of public transportation, sustainable travel is encouraged and negative environmental impacts
are reduced (Wood, 2018).
Agile cities also make use of technology available in many other ways, one of which is to avoid
commuting all together for some residents by allowing for remote work alternatives. As noted by Gino
et al. (2017) “one way to reduce your commute without switching jobs or moving is to occasionally work
from home or at a place closer to home such as the shared offices provided by companies like WeWork.
Telecommuting is becoming increasingly common”
When looking at Dublin’s case, an alternative, modern, mobility option introduced in 2008 is GoCar,
which offers a car-sharing service. As was reported by Hamilton (2018) its success in recent years has
generated the announcement of further investment into this company and states that a national survey
showed that two thirds of respondents believe the number of cars on the streets should be reduced, but
at the same time found that more than half of respondents are not satisfied with public transport options
available.
Through the effective use of data, models can be run with ideas for system improvement, prior to
adopting them and in this way, it is possible to analyse potential effects and outcomes without the
20
consequences and cost involved in implementation, so that weaknesses in the proposals can be
identified and improved. An example of this is a study carried out in South- East Queensland, Australia,
in which the data collected via the smartcards used for public transport (equivalent of the local LEAP
card) was used to model two scenarios proposed with the intention of improving network effectiveness,
one scenario provided fare discounts to trips that needed transfers and the second scenario was to
increase the number of stops on buses that feed train stations, both of which proved to be effective in
improving the public transport network (Yen et al., 2016, p. 4035). In this way, the effects, positive,
negative or neutral of proposed changes in the existing systems can be assessed without suffering the
financial and social impacts and it is possible to make a better decision regarding their functionality and
efficiency based on a “virtual” trial run.
Regarding the promotion of sustainable travel, Zhan (2016, p. 34) proposes that additionally from
investment into modern, efficient public transportation, a system that combines public transport options
with other sustainable modes of transport such as bike-sharing providers or car-sharing providers could
make the whole system more attractive, by providing opportunities for closing the gap in cases where
the closest public transportation stop is considered inconvenient either at departure or arrival location,
and thus allowing a door-to-door service that competes with the private car alternative. Zhan further
suggests that “the smart phone could be the future platform bringing together real-time trip planning
with an integrated ticket booking and payment system to make multimodal trips hassle-free and
attractive”.
2.6
Other cities
Metro Manila, the capital region in the Philippines, has been identified as having a similar situation as
Dublin with urban sprawl type of growth and increased housing and prices in those areas that are closer
to where the main employment areas have settled. This has led to the commuting distances increasing
for numerous residents. However, differently to Dublin’s case, many of those dispersed Manila
commuters make use of the public transportation system as opposed to private vehicles. “The majority
of daily commuters in Metro Manila using public transport travel longer distances than they did 20 years
ago… Moreover, authors’ survey shows and increased demand for transportation” (Andong and Sajor,
2017). In this particular case, however, the increase of demand of public transportation is not related to
sustainability measures by the government or even due to a greater effectiveness in the found in this
type of transportation service (in terms of security, efficiency or accessibility), but rather due to cost-
convenience.
Manila, however, is just one of the various cities that have experienced drastic urban sprawl levels and
property price increases that foster longer commutes for low-income earners, Zhang & Gao (2008)
identified Beijing as one of such cities also, while Zhao and Li (2016, p. 948) further point out that this
is the situation in many of the large cities in China. In such cases, low income earners are faced with
21
the higher costs for commuting also, due to the increased travel distance. At the same time, Boutot
(2015), reported that after major investment in public transportation and the inclusion of alternative
mobility solutions, the traditionally association of car-ownership with status is losing strength in China,
and public transportation is gaining more popularity.
Differently from the above, Estonia’s capital city, Tallim has adopted a policy of free public transportation
during the past 5 years for residents, which encourages local residents to spend their money in other
local businesses such as cafes or restaurants instead of public transportation and aid those with lower
income, while at the same time encouraging a reduction in traffic and air pollution (Gray, 2018). A study
carried out in 2016 regarding this measure however, found that it was residents who previously used to
walk that generated the main increase in use of buses once the measure was adopted, so that in its
majority the initiative has replaced one sustainable way of mobility for another, as opposed to reducing
car-usage (Gray, 2018). Despite this, due to the increased popularity of public transportation, Estonia
is planning on rolling out the same initiative to the rest of the country and has inspired other countries
to consider similar measures. In Paris, the mayor announced that a study would be carried out on the
feasibility of such a measure to be implemented in the city (De Clercq, 2018). Similarly, Germany will
be trialing free-public-transportation in five cities that they have identified suffering from air quality
issues. This free-public-transportation initiative is an attempt to reduce the use of private cars which will
lower air pollution, and also assist them in meeting EU regulations on air pollution (Reuters, 2018).
In South East Queensland, Australia, buses are organized in a radial way and many of them run in
dedicated bus lanes, which is identified as a Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) system, they adopted an
integrated fare system to include all modes of public transport, except for taxis. Through the use of a
“Go-card” (similar to the Irish LEAP card), the fare is paid in accordance with the overall number of
zones travelled, disregarding the number of transfers done along the way (Yen et al., 2016, p. 4023).
Opposing the described transport system characteristics of South East Queensland, Thompson, (1977,
cited in Yen et al., 2016, p. 4032) posed that a radial system is not as effective in providing connectivity
as a networked transport system with interchanges. This networked style of public transportation has
been adopted successfully in Zurich, Switzerland (Yen et al., 2016, p. 4032). According to Yen et al.
(2016, p. 4023) another characteristic of the public transportation system in Zurich is that they have
adopted four types of transport cards, namely: adult, child, senior and concession, where only the adult-
type pays for a full fee and “the latter three types have a 50% fare reduction of the full adult fare”
Winnipeg, in Canada, has been identified by The International Institute for Sustainable Development
(IISD) as a fast-growing city that has faced an average yearly population growth of 1.7% since 2013
mainly due to immigration. As such, this city’s growth can be considered similar to Dublin’s, and so are
the views expressed regarding its public transport services, which according to IISD are considered
unreliable (Gunn, Stanley and Temmer, 2018). The article also suggests that Winnipeg is lagging
22
behind with the Real Time Information (RTPI) systems that are used to inform transport users of
expected arrival times.
In 2015, a study considering the transferability of urban mobile solutions which are being used in leading
cities around the world was commenced. This study identified 58 different urban mobility solutions and
categorized them into clusters based on their purpose and effects. From these, it is worth mentioning
the following identified solutions related to public transport: BRT systems, Trolley Bus Systems, Public
Transport ITS, Integrated fare system, Integrated public-transport network planning, dedicated bus
lanes, Intermodal Interchanges, Multimodal Journey Planners, Car-Sharing Schemes, Participation of
stakeholders and citizens in planning stages (Lah et al., 2015). Dublin has been working on some of
these solutions also, such as Car-Sharing Schemes with the introduction and future expansion of Go-
Car (Hamilton, 2018), Multimodal Journey Planners, such as the TFI mobile application, partially
dedicated bus lanes throughout the city (shared with cyclists, taxis and in some locations with the LUAS
system also), and the participation of stakeholders and citizens for future planning, such as the currently
undergoing consultation process for the Bus Connect proposal. Others, however, can still provide
options for public transport improvement, such as the integrated fare system, BRT systems or
intermodal interchanges.
In Perth, Australia, the public transportation system has been reported to have limited accessibility,
resulting in residents without private cars with “fewer accessible urban opportunities” (Ricciardi, Xia and
Currie, 2015 cited in Zhao and Li, 2016, p. 948). A report prepared by RMIT University in Australia found
that Perth’s policies on creating access to activity centres are not being implemented well and when
compared to other Australian capital cities, their policy for public transport is not ambitious enough
aiming at: “60% of residences should be within 400 m of a bus stop or 800 m of a train stop” (Hooper
et al., 2018), and the measured result was 64%. The same report indicated that dwellings closer to the
city centre were found to have a higher level of accessibility to frequent public transport and the level
decreased as the distance from the city centre increased. Perth’s public transportation system was
described as consisting of radial type rail services meeting at the city centre, fed by and supported by
bus services, with a fully integrated system combining buses, trains and ferries and a SmartRider
electronic ticketing system that can be used in any of those systems and works through tag-on, tag-off
with the ticketing system automatically charging the fare corresponding to the stages travelled
(Department of Transport, 2011, p. 14). There is a defined boundary within the city centre in which all
public transportation can be used for free, with some bus services (called CAT) particularly designed
and allocated to travel within this area for free, additionally to other buses and trains arriving from or
traveling to outer zones, that can also be used for free when travelling within this free-transit-area
(Transperth, 2018). In 2011 a draft proposal was issued for consultation for the development of
additional of Mass Transit Systems (either BRT or light rail) to complement Perth’s public transport
network (Department of Transport, 2011, p. 20).
23
In Bologna, Italy, an initiative to encourage sustainable modes of transportation was introduced in which
residents can record journeys completed via public transport, cycling or walking through the use of a
mobile application and earn points with each trip (with a limitation of four per day). Services and goods,
such as beer or cinema tickets, can then be purchased with the collected points in some participating
local businesses. This initiative was named Bella Mossa and was showed to be successful in its initial
four-month trial period (Wood, 2018).
An article published by the World Economic Forum compared the popularity between Beijing, London
and New York’s public transportation systems and fount that Beijing, having higher population density
than the other two cities registered the least public transport mode share. In this comparison Fang
(2015) further identifies that the number of jobs located within a 20-minute walk boundary of the main
metro station in Beijing, Guomao, is significantly less than those found in a similar boundaries around
Oxford Circus and Grand Central Station (main metro stations in London and New York respectively),
deducing that this lower number of jobs within convenient walking distance leads to the lower public
transport mode share, stating that 20 minutes is considered the maximum time a person walks without
taking a break.
2.7
Plans for changes in Bus system
In October 2018, the NTA published a report which details fare changes that were later adopted on
December 2018. Such amended fares, which stipulated the increase of some fares and decrease on
others, are explained as an initial step towards a different fare structure which is proposed to be adopted
in the coming years along with the “Bus Connects” initiative. This future initiative brought along with the
Bus Connect project would allow only two fare options: “a short distance fare and a 90-minute fare”. In
this way, the 90 minute fare will allow for use and combination of various public transport options during
the 90 mins after payment of the fare, namely: “Dublin bus, Luas, Go Ahead Ireland services, Ianrod
Eireann DART services and zones 1-4 on short Hop Zone commuter services” (National Transport
Authority, 2018b, p. 4), introducing in this way an integrated fare system for Dublin’s public transport
systems.
According to Burns (2018), another characteristic of the “Bus Connects” initiative is that it would involve
the removal of long-existing routes towards the city centre in Dublin and the new design to be
implemented will require some passengers to change their one-bus journey to a multiple-bus journey
by adopting seven core routes and thirteen supporting orbital routes. Existing routes in Dublin are radial-
like, with buses going through the city centre. In the new system, the orbital routes would connect outer
neighbourhoods in a ring-type manner and intersect with the radial-type routes that coincide in the city
centre.
24
Additionally, it is expected that the new system would include a fleet increase that will see a growth in
the number of services running post-peak hours and on the weekend. According to a report published
by NTA by Jarret Walker & Associates (2018) the increased frequency in the new services will mean
that even when a bus change is required, the trip overall should be faster than it currently is with a
single bus.
Bus Connects would also see the introduction of 230km of lanes dedicated only to the use of buses
and another 200kms of cycle lanes (National Transport Authority, 2018a) and the re-categorization of
bus services such that frequent and infrequent services, peak or all-day services are differentiated for
users (Jarret Walker & Associates, 2018c, p. 6), this would translate into a different numbering system
which will also involve use letters, a different one to identify each of the core corridors (the seven main
routes) (Burns, 2018a). Higher frequency of peak-hour services is also proposed.
Part of this proposal also aims to generate better and more frequent access to suburban centres such
as Dun Laoghaire or Blanchardstown, which are also developing and growing commercially, with some
companies already setting up their offices in these areas instead of the city centre (Jarret Walker &
Associates, 2018c, p. 9).
With regards to movements within the city centre itself, an internal orbital route is proposed to be
introduced that would facilitate travelling within the edges of the city centre (Jarret Walker & Associates,
2018c, p. 9) and aims at reducing the need of private cars in this already-congested part of the city.
While some of the diagrams with proposed “spine” routes (main radial routes) differentiate a few as
BRT (Bus Rapid Transit) lines, there is no explicit proposal of BRT lines to be introduced as part of the
Bus Connects project in the reports that were published by the NTA. Previous proposals for the
introduction of BRT routes back in 2014-2016 were faced with obstacles from residents at time of
consultation and did not progress. Some sources state, however, that the BRT concept has not been
fully discarded and will be dependent on Metro proposals that would connect Swords and the airport to
the city centre and beyond, however this project is still not fully developed (Ginty, 2017).
As mentioned, the Bus Connects proposal is still in the early development phase, currently undergoing
a first round of consultation. The proposal has received various criticisms and observations already,
almost 30,000 submissions were issued by September 2018 (Burns, 2018c). The Transport
Infrastructure Ireland (TII) has also issued a submission pointing out some of the limitations on existing
roads that would not allow for the proposal to be accommodated (Burns, 2018b), and the Dún
Laoghaire-Rathdown County Council has expressed concerns regarding the need for interchange of
bus routes claiming it increases “inconvenience, insecurity and uncertainty” to many users (Burns,
2018a). A new draft proposal is due to be issued by mid-2019 and another consultation round will be
held prior to issuing a final project proposal. Hence, it is expected that there will be changes
25
implemented onto the current proposal details when the following versions or the proposal are
developed.
2.8
Literature Conclusion
The findings collected above indicate real challenges for Dublin’s city planning towards a near future
due to the continued population growth that is forecasted. The ongoing housing crisis in Ireland and
particularly in Dublin are beginning to hinder business opportunities by causing continued increase in
the already-high cost of renting as well as by lack of options.
The public transportation system in any city impacts on accessibility for residents and visitors,
particularly for those who do not own private vehicles. This system can also contribute towards a city’s
measure of sustainability, by helping to reduce the use of private cars and subsequently aiding in the
limitation of congestion which is commonly experienced in highly populated cities.
The latest developments in technologies allow for collection of data that provides opportunities for many
studies to be carried out, such as a virtual trial of proposed network changes, or the identification of the
busiest bus routes. Through data, designs for public transport development can be improved and tested
prior to implementation. RTPI systems allow for bus users to have access to updated information on
bus routes and expected arrival times, so that travelling can become more efficient and convenient.
Bus Connects proposal includes a redesign of Dublin’s existing bus system, with increased service
frequency and outer neighbourhood connectivity as well as integrated fare systems. This proposal was
issued in draft form for public consultation, after which amendments to the proposal are expected to be
presented by mid-2019.
