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The Impact of the Sunk Cost Fallacy and Other
Behavioural Biases on Individual Irish Investors
Dissertation submitted in part fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of
Master of Business Administration (Finance)
Dublin Business School
Stefphane Samantha Percival
(10172822)
MAY 2016
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I, Stefphane Samantha Percival declare that this research is my original work and that it
has never been presented to any institution or university for the award of Degree or
Diploma. In addition, I have referenced correctly all literature and sources used in this
work and this this work is fully compliant with the Dublin Business School’s academic
honesty policy.
Signature: Stefphane Percival
Date: 28/05/2016
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
I would like to take this opportunity to thank my supervisor Mr. Eddie McConnon for his
continuous support and guidance without whom I would not have been able to finish this
dissertation successfully.
My family have also endlessly supported me during the course of my MBA degree. I would
also like to thank a few new contacts I made Mr. Marc Mac Eodhasa, Mr Denis Daly and Mr.
Enda McNicholas. The have provided assistance of which I will always be grateful.
This has been a fulfilling and enriching experience for me because of all your help!
Thank you.
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ABSTRACT
This dissertation aims to prove that individuals make irrational decisions when under such
circumstances as uncertainty and risk. The research conducted assesses forty-two Irish
professionals and their behaviour while making decisions pertaining specifically to that of
investing in stocks and shares. In particular, the dissertation focuses predominantly on one
aspect of Behavioural Finance i.e. the sunk-cost fallacy. Other biases such as overconfidence
bias, regret aversion, mental accounting and so on are also considered. Behavioural finance or
more broadly behavioural economics is a study that combines cognitive psychology,
microeconomics and finance. The research finds evidence of the sunk cost fallacy as well as
other biases prevailing amongst the Irish investors during the primary data analysis. The
reasons for which are consequently explained in detail.
Unlike the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH), Behavioural Finance takes into account other
aspects and variables of individual behaviour since it holds financial markets and individuals
to be irrational. Behavioural Finance began with the theory formulated by two famous people
i.e. Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman which was the Prospect Theory. The research
strongly utilises this theory throughout the dissertation.
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
CHAPTER 1 – INTRODUCTION
…………………………………………………………………………………
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1.1 Research Aims and Objectives
……………………………………………………………………………..
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1.2 Research Questions and Hypotheses
……………………………………………………………………..
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1.2.1 Research Sub-questions:
………………………………………………………………………………..
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1.2.2 Hypotheses…………………………………………………………………………………………………
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1.3 Dissertation Roadmap ……………………………………………………………………………………….
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1.4 Major Contributions of Research ………………………………………………………………………..
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CHAPTER 2 – LITERATURE REVIEW
……………………………………………………………………..
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2.1 Introduction ……………………………………………………………………………………………………..
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2.2 Prospect Theory………………………………………………………………………………………………..
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2.3 Behavioural Finance
………………………………………………………………………………………….
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2.4 Sunk-Cost Effect/Fallacy …………………………………………………………………………………..
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2.4.1 Factors Affecting Sunk-Cost ………………………………………………………………………..
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2.5 Overconfidence Bias …………………………………………………………………………………………
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2.6 Regret Aversion………………………………………………………………………………………………..
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2.7 Mental Accounting Heuristic ……………………………………………………………………………..
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2.8 Hindsight Bias ………………………………………………………………………………………………….
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2.9 Conclusion
……………………………………………………………………………………………………….
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CHAPTER 3 – RESEARCH METHODOLOGY AND METHODS ………………………………..
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3.1. Introduction …………………………………………………………………………………………………….
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3.2 Research Design
……………………………………………………………………………………………….
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3.2.1 Research Philosophy……………………………………………………………………………………
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3.2.3 Research Approach
……………………………………………………………………………………..
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3.2.4 Research Strategy ……………………………………………………………………………………….
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3.2.5 Time Horizon
……………………………………………………………………………………………..
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3.3 Sampling Size and Selecting Respondents …………………………………………………………..
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3.4 Research Ethics ………………………………………………………………………………………………..
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3.5 Possible Research Limitations and Scope
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CHAPTER 4 – DATA ANALYSIS AND FINDINGS
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4.1 Introduction ……………………………………………………………………………………………………..
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4.2 Quantitative Analysis and Research Findings
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4.2.1 Optimism and Overconfidence Bias
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4.2.2 Long-term Investors, Fixed Assets and Other Variables
…………………………………..
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4.2.3 Irish Investors and the Sunk-Cost Fallacy/Effect …………………………………………….
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4.2.4 Risk-taking for Gains and Losses
………………………………………………………………….
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4.2.5 Investors and Regret Aversion ……………………………………………………………………..
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4.2.6 Decision Making and Mental Accounting
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4.3 Conclusion
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CHAPTER 5 – DISCUSSION
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5.1 Research Question and Interpretation ………………………………………………………………….
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5.1.2 Possible Reasons and Implications for the Sunk Cost Effect
…………………………….
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5.2 Research Sub-questions and Interpretation …………………………………………………………..
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5.3 Research Hypotheses…………………………………………………………………………………………
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CHAPTER 6 – CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS …………………………………..
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6.1 Conclusions ……………………………………………………………………………………………………..
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6.2 Recommendations …………………………………………………………………………………………….
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CHAPTER 7 – REFLECTION
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BIBLIOGRAPHY
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APPENDIX I ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………
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LIST OF FIGURES AND TABLES
Figure 2.1 A Hypothetical Value Function
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Figure 3.1 Research Onion …………………………………………………………………………………………
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Figure 3.2 Research Strategies
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Figure 4.1 Age Group of Irish Investors
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Figure 4.2 Optimism Magnitude of Irish Investors ………………………………………………………..
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Figure 4.3 Respondents Profitability and Confidence in Investment Portfolio …………………..
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Figure 4.4 Respondents Description of Confidence (Scale)
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Figure 4.5 Risk Taking Under Uncertainty for Gains……………………………………………………..
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Figure 4.6 Risk Taking Under Uncertainty for Losses ……………………………………………………
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Figure 4.7 Respondents Regret Spectrum
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Figure 4.8 Decision Making and Mental Accounting in Irish Investors…………………………….
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CHAPTER 1 – INTRODUCTION
It is often argued that the global financial crisis was not alone caused by a series of economic
factors and shocks at play but by various powerful imperiling psychological forces. From blind-
faith in ever-rising housing prices to plummeting confidence in capital markets, ‘animal spirits’
are a driving force in financial anomalies globally with respect to the financial markets (Akerlof
and Shiller, 2009).
In the last half decade, academic finance has experienced two major revolutions i.e.
neoclassical and behavioural. Academic finance before the 1960s was roughly organised
around a collection of anecdotes, investment philosophies and puzzles (Shefrin, 2015).
Behavioural Finance is a relatively new concept that integrates conventional economic
theories, cognitive psychology and traditional finance. In 1979, Daniel Kahneman and Amos
Tversky wrote a significant paper in the field of economics and cognitive psychology called
‘Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk’. This paper brought to light various
human biases and errors that are made under uncertainty. Prospects or gambles are viewed as
choices of decision-making under risk (Kahneman and Tversky, 1979). More broadly,
behavioural economics is a study that focuses on the unanticipated irrational behaviour and
financial decision-making process that various investors make while purchasing or selling
certain financial products or services.
‘Sunk-cost fallacy’ is an aspect of behavioural finance. This aspect is the primary focus of the
study conducted on Irish investors in common stocks and shares. A sunk cost is a basic
concept of economics and business. Its understanding is significant in order to act as a rational
decision-maker especially while considering investments in securities. Common phrases or
expressions such as “don’t cry over spilt milk” are used in-line with the aforementioned fallacy.
Sunk-cost is understood to be that loss which cannot be recovered and in terms of rationality
(Hastie and Dawes, 2009). It is the investors irrational decision to hold on to a bad investment
for too long. Psychologists often refer to this judgemental bias by ‘cognitive dissonance’, it is
that judgemental bias that people tend to make when they fail to believe it is wrong. According
to Kahneman and Tversky, this can be explained by the value function of which loss aversion
plays a significant role in the prospect theory.
Other significant themes of behavioural finance considered in the research study are over-
confidence bias, regret aversion and hindsight bias. The research determines to explore the
possibility and impact the previously mentioned human errors and biases have on the individual
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Irish investor as well as to provide for a more rational decision-making process while investing
in equity shares.
1.1 Research Aims and Objectives
The main aim of the research study is to investigate the impact of the sunk-cost fallacy and
other behavioural biases on the individual Irish investor.
The research further aims to investigate and test the existence of various behavioural patterns,
errors, biases and decision-making under uncertainty against that of the individual Irish
investor while making investment choices in shares and stocks.
Therefore, the study will also provide a platform for debate for the ‘irrational exuberance’ of
the Irish credit bubble.
Humans inarguably make irrational choices under risk according to Kahneman and Tversky.
The significance of the research conducted identifies these choices and human failings to make
rational decisions at the time of investing in the securities market. This can help individual
investors identify such behavioural patterns or anomalies while investing in shares allowing
for “value investing”. The research also enables individuals to make better choices in daily
activities i.e. sunk-costs do not only apply to financial decisions, it identifies better utilisation
of opportunity cost in that of daily activities such as going for a walk in the park instead of
watching the rest of a bad movie flick allowing the individual to optimally utilise his/her time
i.e. to make the most of an individual’s marginal utility.
With respect to consumerism, this research would inform individuals of marketing ploys and
manipulation that exist within the market. Therefore, making the consumer informed of their
inherent judgemental errors and biases which this research sets out to test if present or not.
1.2 Research Questions and Hypotheses
Does the “sunk-cost fallacy” apply to the individual Irish investor while making investment
decisions with respect to common stock?
Investors can be sometimes attached to past investment for too long despite the investment
being an irrational bad investment which positions the investor in a sunk-cost trap
predominantly due to his/her aversion to loss (Snopek, 2012).
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This question examines the extent to which the sunk-cost fallacy has an impact on investors if
applicable in the secondary capital securities market. The research will enable recipients to
have rational expectations and make optimal decisions based on constrained budget. This will
allow for unbiased choices to be made without allowing for an individuals’ overconfidence to
seep in. It further provides in-depth analysis for the same with a descripto-explanatory purpose
to serve as a precursor for the explanation of the sunk-cost fallacy in behavioural finance.
1.2.1 Research Sub-questions:
What are the implications (if any) of the other aspects of behavioural finance that play a role
in the individual Irish investor’s decision-making process while investing in capital market
securities?
The research will also try to determine other aspects of behavioural finance (hindsight bias,
overconfidence, regret aversion and so on) affecting the individual Irish investor from being
rational. Behavioural finance has increased its significance over the years especially after the
financial crisis of 2007/08 in which critics started to doubt the efficient market hypothesis.
Investors need to understand the possibility of their irrational behaviour, judgemental errors
and animal spirits which is even argued by Shiller (2009) to be a major driving force in the
preceding events leading up to the global financial crisis. These human failings and perception
of risk differs highly and can be manipulated under the right circumstances as decisions are
made in relation to certain reference points i.e. perceived price to be paid for an object during
uncertainty. This can also be referred to as “transaction utility”. Thaler (2015, p.59) defines
transaction utility as “the difference between the price actually paid for the object and the price
one would normally expect to pay [i.e. the reference point]”.
Is the individual Irish investor averse to loss and its relationship to their individual risk-taking
ability on prospective investments?
This research also examines the aversion to loss which could prolong the investors hold on a
bad investment or prevent the investor from making a good investment judgement. This sheds
light on the “endowment effect” element of behavioural finance. Individuals value things that
are already in their possession more than the things that will be part of their endowment (Thaler,
2015, p. 18). The study also investigates the relationship between the individual Irish investor’s
aversion to loss and the level of risk that they are willing to take on investments.
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1.2.2 Hypotheses
The research adopts a quantitative research design with a deductive research approach and as
such will form the following research hypotheses to test from the primary data that is collected
and analysed in line with the previously formed research questions:
Hypothesis 1
(H1) The sunk-cost fallacy does apply to the individual Irish investor
while making investments in the stock market securities.
Hypothesis 2
(H2) Individual Irish investors are more risk seeking for losses and risk
averse for gains.
Hypothesis 3
(H3) The more optimistic and confident an Irish investor is, the higher
will be their risk taking abilities.
1.3 Dissertation Roadmap
This dissertation has been divided and compiled into 7 different chapters which is classified
and illustrated as follows:
Chapter 1 – Introduction
This chapter includes an in-depth explanation of the background of Behavioural Finance as
well as the main discipline that is tested along with other behavioural biases i.e. the sunk-cost
effect/fallacy. Furthermore, it lists the main research question together with the sub-research
questions and hypotheses to be tested. Additionally, this chapter briefly explains the
objectives, aims, scope, contributions and roadmap of the dissertation.
Chapter 2 – Literature Review
The next chapter that follows the introduction is the Literature Review. This chapter will
include six main literature themes i.e. prospect theory, behavioural finance, sunk-cost fallacy,
overconfidence bias, regret aversion and hindsight bias. Literature from different sources are
listed, reviewed and cases are built and made for each argument in the literature themes.
Chapter 3 – Research Methods and Methodology
The Research Methods and Methodology chapter discusses the various research activities
undertaken, assumptions and the research design in great detail. It justifies the rationale,
clarifies weaknesses and strengths of the research methods and methodology of this
dissertation.
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Furthermore, this chapter also illustrates and discusses the research philosophy, approach,
strategy, time horizon, data collection techniques, sampling methods and size, research ethics
and limitations of the research study undertaken.
Chapter 4 – Data Analysis and Findings
This chapter aims at presenting the findings of the primary research conducted i.e. information
gathered on questionnaires. It illustrates and describes the findings of the data collected in line
with the research aim and objectives.
Chapter 5 – Discussion and Conclusions
Chapter five is the ‘Discussion’ section of the dissertation, as the previous chapter describes
the findings of the primary research, this chapter will interpret the results of the findings as
well as answer the research questions. Additionally, this chapter will also discuss whether the
hypotheses mentioned earlier have been found to be true or false, it then further explains the
implication the conclusions that would be drawn.
Chapter 6 – Conclusions and Recommendations
This chapter will summarise all the findings and draw general conclusions that will illuminate
and clarify the issues that are prevailing in the present which were presented in the literature
review chapter.
It will aim to integrate all the concepts and theories that were previously mentioned in the
literature review, data analysis and discussion which then provides recommendations for the
same.
Chapter 7 – Reflection
This chapter will aim to critically assess the researcher’s learning during the whole dissertation
process as well as during the MBA program. This is an informal account of the aspirations,
goals, objectives, experiences and so on of the researcher.
1.4 Major Contributions of Research
The research will contribute to its recipients by providing a platform for debate as the subject
matter is one that is of a controversial nature since critics still argue that the securities market
functions rationally in addition to individuals behaving according to the axioms of the Efficient
Market Hypothesis.
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There has also been limited research if any in terms of the sunk-cost fallacy in relation to the
individual Irish investor. A selected few behavioural biases and judgemental errors are sought
and their application to the Irish securities market. Its implications will be described and
explained so as to draw conclusions and provide recommendations to raise awareness and
improve the individual’s decision-making process at times of uncertainty and risk.
Furthermore, the research aims to contribute to the field of behavioural finance by testing the
aforementioned hypothesis of regret theory specifically with that of the individual Irish
investor.
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CHAPTER 2 – LITERATURE REVIEW
2.1 Introduction
According to a predominant principle of classical economic theory, investment decisions are
affected by rationally formed expectations by making use of all available information in an
efficient manner (Scharfstein and Stein, 1990) but contrary to common assumption, economist
John Maynard Keynes argues in The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money that
the “long-term investor” is concerned with the average opinion and the criticism of others in
order to make a sound judgement. The individual also behaves in the manner of following the
general belief of the crowd (Keynes, 1936).
In this chapter, various literature themes will be examined all having relevance to the research
study and these themes all revolve around behavioural finance or more broadly behavioural
economics. A literature review will consist of reviewing earlier and recent work of the listed
themes so as to identify areas wherein further research will be beneficial to help the research
study conclude with various propositions and methodologies (Rowley and Slack, 2004).
The different literature themes illustrated are that of prospect theory, behavioural finance, sunk-
cost fallacy, overconfidence bias, regret aversion and hindsight bias. The literature themes and
research are grounded in the concept of the prospect theory that was postulated in 1979 by
Kahneman and Tversky.
Prospect theory has changed the way economists think about decision making under
uncertainty but there have been very few applications of the theory and those appearing mostly
in finance (Heiman et al., 2015). This literature theme addresses the aforementioned gap with
regards to applicability in relation to the sunk-cost fallacy and the prospect theory as well as
their possible existence within the Irish investor decision-making process while investing in
shares.
2.2 Prospect Theory
Prospect Theory paved the way and was the basis for the development of Behavioural Finance.
The concept of Prospect Theory was first postulated by psychologists Daniel Kahneman and
Amos Tversky in 1979. They presented a paper that was called “Prospect Theory: An Analysis
of Decision Under Risk”. In this paper, Kahneman and Tversky presented an alternative critical
argument to an existing economic theory i.e. “expected utility theory”. In traditional expected
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utility theory, the utility of a gain is assessed by the comparison of the utilities of two states of
wealth. This dominant theory at the time was the normative model of rational choice and it did
not factor in the difference in attitude for gains and losses (Kahneman, 2011, p.279). The
expected utility theory was first published in 1944 by mathematician John von Neumann and
economist Oskar Morgenstern in one of their most famous work called “Theory of Games and
Economic Behaviour” which served as the cornerstone for modern day game theory.
The theory of expected utility primarily lists axioms to which a rational individual in a rational
world would make a decision from a series of available choices. Shefrin and Statman (1985,
p.777) argue that the postulates of expected utility theory do not define a decision-makers
behaviour when confronted with choice under uncertainty.
Alternatively, the prospect theory factors in the possibility of the irrational and the actual
behaviour of an individual decision-maker. Prospect theory offers an alternative to expected
utility theory which unlike the latter does not serve as a guide to rational choice but simply
endeavours to encapsulate the actual choices that real people make (Thaler, p. 29).
An essential feature of this theory is the “value function”. This feature highlights the difference
in the changes in wealth or welfare rather than final states i.e. the emphasis being on the
changes as the carriers of value (Kahneman and Tversky, 1979). The value function determines
the gains as being concave and loss as being convex. This is also significant in the research
study that is conducted as it examines a key concept pertaining to the sunk-cost fallacy which
is “loss aversion”. This is further illustrated with the following figure:
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Source: Econometrica, Vol. 47, No. 2. (Mar., 1979), p. 279
FIGURE 2.0-1 A HYPOTHETICAL VALUE FUNCTION
From the above figure, it is observed that the value of wealth diminishes after a certain point
for every marginal utility gained. This concept is commonly known as diminishing marginal
utility of wealth. An example of an individual’s incremental wealth can be considered in order
to further understand this concept in simple terms. This hypothetical individual’s wealth is at
€400. It increases to €600. The utils (unit used to measure utility) gained is €100. The increment
in the individual’s wealth continues periodically but after a certain point the value of the wealth
starts to diminish and drops to 60 utils for the said individual.
Another significant aspect of the figure is the “reference point”. It is that subjective point
which individuals measure their gains and losses. In the above figure, the reference point has a
value of zero. The reference point is used and manipulated in the research conducted to offer
participants in the study the same prospect i.e. gamble but with different points of reference.
Furthermore, the figure also establishes that individuals are risk seeking for losses. This risk-
aversion is examined practically in this research study conducted on Irish investors while
making decisions relating to investing in shares under risk and uncertainty.
Losses
Gains
Values
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2.3 Behavioural Finance
In the last decade or so, there have been two revolutions in the experience of academic finance
i.e., neoclassical and the other behavioural. Ideas were imported from behavioural psychology
into finance which replaced the rationality postulate with that of a realistic alternative. The
main contributors and Nobel prize winners to this field were psychologist Daniel Kahneman
and experimental economist Vernon Smith (Shefrin, 2015). Behavioural finance helps
apprehend anomalies financial markets that are driven by human emotions and cognitive errors
especially under uncertain circumstances and risks, making the markets irrational as a whole.
Theories that were based on the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) and Capital Asset Pricing
Model (CAPM) place emphasis on the assumption that individuals act rationally and
predictably but in reality, they often behave irrationally (Snopek, 2012).
Eugene Fama, the founder of the Efficient Market Hypothesis remains an important critic to
the discipline of behavioural finance. Fama (1998, p. 284) argues that as the market prices over-
react to information with certain events, there will be about as frequent under-reaction as that
of over-reaction that is consistent with the market being efficient. Nassim Nicholas Taleb in
The Black Swan (2007) addresses this issue by pointing out that our reaction to information is
not based on its logical merit but on the framework that surrounds it and its relation to
registering with our social-emotional system.
Investors strive to find new ways to evaluate the risks and potential reward of economic
ventures by assessing the significance of human reaction in terms of human failings that can
be exploited during the economic planning process (Copur, 2015). By a proper assessment of
these elements of behavioural finance, the research study undertaken is able to fully
comprehend the measure of sunk-cost fallacy and its impact on the individual Irish investor
while making investment decisions on stocks and shares if any.
2.4 Sunk-Cost Effect/Fallacy
In order to understand the sunk-cost fallacy or trap, we must first understand the meaning of
sunk-costs. These are primarily costs which have no chance of being recovered. However, these
costs are still taken into consideration while making decisions for various other investments
i.e. present or future decisions involving investments. These are common cognitive errors that
individuals make.
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From a psychological point of view, it can be explained as a habit of paying too much attention
to past costs and losses while making decisions about the future (Hastie and Dawes, 2009).
Investors also hold on to bad investment for much too long which can be related to the
disposition effect that could be explained by a possible aversion to loss. By doing so, investors
lose the opportunity of selling the losing security in order to acquire a potential gain by
investing in another security (Snopek, 2012).
Thus, causing the disposition effect or for that matter provides for the sunk-cost fallacy. This
is also related to the endowment effect which causes the investor to assume that their choice of
investment is worth more than it is actually worth in reality. According to Kahneman et al.
(1991, p. 203), individuals treat costs that are incurred directly i.e. financial outlays very
differently than that of opportunity costs. Moreover, perceived losses are more painful than
that of foregone gains which is manifested in judgements made about behaviour that is fair.
2.4.1 Factors Affecting Sunk-Cost
One of the factors affecting the sunk-cost is that of initial investment. The greater the initial
investment, the stronger the effect of the sunk cost presents itself (Bornstein and Chapman,
1995).
The effect of personal involvement in on behaviour still proves to be unclear (Bornstein
and Chapman, 1995). For instance, the effect of a sunk cost in the case of an individual’s
involvement in an investment made solely by the person and investments made for the
person by a fund manager might or might not differ in comparison to each of the previous
situations. In contrast, Thaler (2015, p. 60) notes that in a hypothetical situation, students
when given an opportunity to have someone else purchase a bottle of beer on a hot sunny
day with their own money while given a choice of purchasing the beer from a convenience
store or that of a fancy resort for amounts of their choosing (if the cost of the beer is lower
or for the same price as requested by the student), almost always are willing to pay a higher
price for the beer from the resort. This is because of expectations as well as the student not
having to deal with the negotiation of the price with the bartender. Economists refer to this
as “transaction utility” i.e. the price paid for the object minus the expected price to be
paid. From this, it is clear that the aforementioned ‘reference point’ plays an immense role
in the sunk-cost effect as well as an individual’s aversion to loss.
Time influences the impact of a suck cost investment. A phenomenon known as “payment
depreciation” which in simple terms, means that the sunk cost effects wear off over time
(Thaler, 2015, p. 67).
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Furthermore, the sunk-cost fallacy can be argued by some to be rational with the argument that
the decision-maker might decide to hold on to a loss in order to “learn a lesson” but this would
involve that the individual will have two selves i.e. one a teacher and the other a learner which
is illustrated by “the theory of self-control” consisting of both a “myopic doer”, the individual
executes decisions but if influenced by short-term consequences and the other being a “far-
sighted planner”, of which lifetime utility being the concern. Self-control can be achieved
according to the given theory but the planner needs to persuade the doer to act in accordance
with long-term goals (Thaler and Shefrin, 1981).
2.4.2 Tax Motives
Taxes are another significant element that calculatedly affect poor investment choices or biases
which help understand reasons for which investors decide against realising their losses even if
they are aware of their investments in stocks to be an irrecoverable loss. Selling for taxable
investments are at odds with optimal tax-loss. Investors capture tax losses by selling their loss
making investments and they are likely to receive taxable gains by holding on their winning
investments (Odean, 1998, p. 1778). In contrast, Lakonishok and Smidt (1986, p. 972)
highlight that non-tax related incentives would encourage investors to avoid realising losses
and to realise gains.
Another paper by Shefrin and Statman (1985, p. 783) suggests that investors are prone to
concentrate their tax-loss selling in the month of December which in itself reflects a self-control
strategy. This would help explain one of the anomalies that Thaler (2015, p. 174) enumerates
which is that investors tend to hold on to their shares in the month of January as it is seen as an
advisable and a sound investment decision especially in those shares of small companies.
Although the effect of monetary sunk costs on decision-making is widely discussed, results are
sometimes controversial and research is still fragmented (Roth et al., 2014).
2.5 Overconfidence Bias
According to Kahneman and Tversky (1979), the decision making process involves individuals
using heuristics to help them make decisions during uncertain predicaments. The
overconfidence bias refers to individuals or investors predicting the future and making their
own judgements of it and by doing so inadvertently become overconfident. Psychologists refer
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to the mean over confidence as in the correctness of an individual’s answers exceeds that of
the percentage that is only correct (Pohl, 2004).
The overconfidence bias often leads individual investors to the “miscalibration bias” i.e.
individuals take on more risks than that of their limit and the risk of being wrong is heightened
and underestimated due to overconfidence which can also result in the investors lack of reaction
to market news (Snopek, 2012).
Several instances of detrimental decision-making can be explained by an individual’s hubris.
Fellner and Krügel (2012) explain that the result of overweighting private information is mainly
caused by misperceiving the reliability of signals.
In a report by Burks et al (2010), it is found that measures of personality traits have a strong
impact on a person’s stated level of confidence and stress reaction has a negative effect on
confidence resulting in under-confidence. Studies also depict that individuals with higher
confidence levels or overconfident individuals usually tend to behave in a much more daring
manner. This would mean that overconfident investors would be more inclined to take on
riskier investments and greater losses.
2.6 Regret Aversion
Individual investor’s or decision makers are more often than not in fear of making a bad
decision. The view proposed by Bell (1983, p. 1156) which explains a “wrong decision” as a
comparison between the choice selected or decided upon by the individual as opposed to the
alternative choices available and the final outcome of which is worse than that which could
have been achieved with another alternative. Bell propounds that these individuals
inadvertently will seek to avoid the consequence of their decision by willingly paying a
premium.
In simple terms, regret aversion is that established psychological theory which highlights the
behaviour of individuals regrets are formed due to decisions that were previously made and in
some sense turned out to be “wrong” even if they appeared to be right with the information
available ex-ante (Yahyazadehfar, Ghayekhloo and Sadeghi, 2014, p. 2). Yahyazadehfar
further explains that this aversion encourages investors to hold on to poorly performing stocks
because avoiding the sale of which would in turn help the investor to ignore the possible loss
and poor investment decision. This overture proposed by Yahyazadehfar is in-line with the
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previously mentioned sunk-cost fallacy or effect where investors hold on to poor investments
for too long.
The cognitive emotional impact of regret is seen to be only fully felt when the outcomes of the
decisions are made clear but Zeelenberg (1999, p. 95) further suggests that these emotions are
hitherto anticipated and taken into account while the individual evaluates the different options
available.
The axioms of the expected utility theory are so impelling that when decision makers violate
these axioms consistently they are known as “paradoxes” (Bell, 1982, p. 961). However, the
prospect theory does not dictate such heuristic method to decision-making and human
behaviour, it simply elucidates the manner in which individuals act as opposed to serving as
modus operandi to an individual’s conduct.
2.7 Mental Accounting Heuristic
Mental accounting was earlier known as “psychological accounting” founded by Richard
Thaler and later changed to what we now know as mental accounting in a paper by Amos
Tversky and Daniel Kahneman the founders of the Prospect Theory. According to Musura and
Petrovecki (2015, p. 34), mental accounting is a method in which individuals categorise money
in different contexts with different situations which then serves as frames that direct economic
decisions. Furthermore, Musura and Petrovecki suggest that some predicaments lead
individuals to activate different mental accounts and, therefore enabling them to make different
judgements which is not accounted for in the previously mentioned traditional economic theory
(i.e. in terms of rational decision-making) and Efficient Market Hypothesis. Mental accounting
can be said to be a cognitive rule that consumers are argued to use so as to evaluate, organise
and record financial activities (Liu and Chiu, 2015, p. 202).
Shafir and Thaler (2006) suggest in a paper that individuals evaluate a transaction in
differentiating ways when the consumption of a good or service is disparate to that of the time
of purchase. In this context, Musura and Petrovecki explain that individuals with the ability to
reason, will take into consideration all available information while processing a rational
decision but the theory of self-regulation suggests that individuals close themselves up to
available information selectively processing information that is suitable with their own
predefined goal and objective. Furthermore, to assess such a bias a method of hypothetical
choices referred to as the “thought experiment” is often used to test decision-making choices
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in the form of “imagine” questions that would help analyse individual human behaviour
(Musura and Petrovecki, 2015, p. 35).
2.8 Hindsight Bias
The hindsight bias also referred to as the “knew-it-all-along” effect occurs when outcomes are
seen to be more plausible in hindsight that in foresight (Louie, 1999). There are a lot of factors
that influence the individual decision-making process and in the case of the research study, the
decision-making process involved in investment within the Irish securities market.
According to a paper by Hawkins and Hastie (1990), hindsight bias refers to “the tendency for
people with outcome knowledge to believe falsely that they would have predicted the reported
outcome of an event”. Hindsight bias pre-exists in economic expectations. In accordance with
Hawkins and Hastie, another paper suggests a hypothesis of that when investors or the general
public are provided with information about economic developments, they will retrospectively
report having assigned higher probabilities for those developments as compared to the actuals
in foresight, lower probabilities will be reported to contrary developments and there will be no
change in probability ratings when there is no information provided (Hölzl, Kirchler and Rodle,
2002).
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2.9 Conclusion
Other aspects and elements of behavioural finance are also taken into consideration while
focusing on the sunk-cost fallacy within Ireland as these behavioural aspects particularly
“animal spirits” was seen to play a major role in the 2007/08 financial crash following the
boom period.
In the context of uncertainty, when information is askew, investors tend to believe that their
counterparts are better informed and hence are able to make better decisions. This causes
mimicry (Snopek, 2012). This is clearly when prospective investors find themselves in a
predicament where information is scarce and lack the information of fundamental values for
the same.
Thomas Lux sets forth a model wherein the “contagion” of opinions and behaviour in the
market is made explicit formulating a cyclical mechanism around fundamental values.
According to this model, fierce self-amplifying reactions of “speculators” (this also brings to
light the prospect theory) on small deviations from the equilibrium causing overvaluation or
undervaluation, alternatively, the bubbles decelerates when an endogenous breakdown of
bubbles is brought about because of excess profits (Lux, 1995, pp.893-894). For the purpose
of the research study, this herd behaviour effect is also assessed along with the aforementioned
behavioural biases, heuristics and judgemental errors in an attempt to work out the dynamics
of the secondary securities market in Ireland with respect to the Irish investors and contagions
of ‘opinion’ and ‘behaviour’ is to be emphatic. From this literature review, it is clear that gaps
exist in relation to nonlinear dependence in the preliminary information with respect to the
financial market operations so as to develop stochastic nonlinearities in the data that addresses
the Irish investors in Ireland. The effective assessment of the former would help this research
study to open up platforms for future research and debate.
Given the recent effects and the aftermath of the financial crisis particularly with that of Ireland,
the hindsight bias proves beneficial while undertaking this study as some respondents of the
survey can show possible signs of not keeping up-to-date situational models, which according
to Hastie and Dawes requires an individual to constantly refresh his/her beliefs and thereby,
adopting the “up-to-date situational model” instead of focusing on sunk-costs which is a
fundamental element of decision theory i.e. theory of choice.
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Another identified gap in the literature is that to allow for ‘regret’ which is examined during
this research study. Both prospect theory and utility theory fail to take this aspect of human
behaviour into account. The two theories share the assumption that the evaluation of available
options in a choice are separate and independent and therefore the option with the highest value
is then selected (Kahneman, 2011, p.287). For the purpose of this research study, the
investment choice analysed and assessed is that of common stocks and shares that is restricted
to the individual Irish investor. This helps the researcher understand whether events such as
the 2007/08 crisis adversely affects investors by allowing them to feel more averse to loss.
Therefore, the researcher can draw conclusions that would serve as a precursor for further study
and bridge the gaps within consumer psychology and decision-making. The research also
provides for enabling the heuristic process while avoiding common cognitive errors and
mistakes that Irish investors find themselves making which will enable them to make better
rational decisions by recognising a sunk-cost trap. Furthermore, the primary research of this
subject matter should serve as a platform for debate in terms of future research in the area.
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CHAPTER 3 – RESEARCH METHODOLOGY AND METHODS
3.1 Introduction
Research Methods refer to those activities which are undertaken to generate data like that of
questionnaires, interviews, focus groups and so on but in contrast, the concept of Research
Methodology is differentiated as the researcher’s attitude towards the understanding of the
research to be undertaken and the strategy to be utilised by the researcher to provide answers
to the predefined research questions (Greener, 2008, p. 10).
This research study uses ‘the research onion’ illustrated in Figure 3.1 by Saunders et al (2012,
p. 160) in order to carry out a step-by-step procedure towards a quantitative research design.
This design should help the researcher to conduct the primary research required, which would
therefore, help to test various previously defined hypotheses so as to form conclusions and
recommendations by using statistical analyses. This is done by implementing and manoeuvring
copious aspects of the research onion i.e. the research philosophy, approach, strategy,
methodological choice, time horizon, sampling method, data collection techniques and
procedures. By defining and discussing these different aspects, the strengths and weaknesses
of the methodology used can be thoroughly comprehended together with its justification
followed up with appropriate literature.
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3.2 Research Design
As mentioned earlier, in order for the research to be conducted in an effective sequential
manner, the research onion will be used to help the researcher. The research onion is further
depicted in the following figure:
Source: Saunders et al. 2009, p.52
Figure 3.1 Research Onion
The first methodological choice is to choose the type of research design that would most favour
and suit the nature of the research study. This involves quantitative, qualitative and mixed
research design. Qualitative research and quantitative research can be distinguished by the
nature of information studied or analysed i.e. numeric data and non-numeric data (Saunder et
al., 2016). For the purpose of this research study, a quantitative research design is preferred. In
a quantitative research design, researchers manipulate certain aspects of a situation and can
then effectively measure the presumed effects of those manipulations, the researcher would
simply use measurements in the absence of manipulation to question individual behaviour,
beliefs and attitudes (Clark-Carter, 2009, p. 5). The research uses a quantitative research design
as it succours the researcher in questioning respondents by manipulating various situational
variables and measuring the relationship of these variables of the responses from the
representative sample of the population. A quantitative research design also allows the research
study to test several hypotheses out to form a conclusive conclusion that would serve as a
